Polymarket odds of Hormuz Strait traffic normalizing by end of May spike to 73%

Traders on the Polymarket prediction market platform place the odds of the Strait returning to normal traffic by May 31, 2026, at 73%.

Polymarket prediction market odds of the Strait of Hormuz “returning to normal” by the end of May spiked to 73% on Friday, following news that Iranian officials have temporarily opened up the Strait of Hormuz as part of a ceasefire deal.

The odds climbed to a high of 82% on Friday, after Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi announced that the Strait of Hormuz is open. Since that time, the odds have fallen back down to 73%. He said in an X post:

However, traders on the platform placed the odds of the Strait returning to normal activity by the end of April at just 40%.

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